Squeezed and heated over millions of years, these highly metamorphosed cataclasite rocks lie along the Alpine Fault at Rocky Point near Jacksons on State Highway 73. That is 250km more than previously thought. It is a challenge to find appropriate sites where there are long records of past fault movements, and where it is possible to date sediments. No thumping helicopters, just one tourist coach parked on a side road, a few visitors puddle-jumping along the street hunkered under umbrellas, restaurant owners looking hopeful. A member of the audience asks about aftershocks. Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. A zone of uncertainty is shown in association with the mapping of the main rupture trace. It may be quiet but it's not uneventful. The idea was exciting but it was followed by a large amount of work. It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. The 300 km long South Westland Fault Zone (SWFZ) is within the footwall of the Central Alpine Fault (<20 km away) and has 3500 m of dip‐slip displacement, but it has been unknown if the fault is active. Folding in late Quaternary sediments indicates active tilting of sediments at up to 0.4°/ka and variations in local uplift/subsidence rates of up to 4 mm/yr. "Any event so close to the fault is worthy of closer consideration. Then I climbed the steps to see him, he patiently explained once more the movement on the Alpine Fault, which had seemed so clear to him but which took others years more to see. The fault runs hundreds of kilometres up the spine of the South Island, from Fiordland along the western edge of the Southern Alps. Introduction: Although the Alpine Fault has the potential to cause catastrophic damage on the West Coast, and elsewhere in the South Island, should there be major movement along all or part of its length, there has been no such movement in historical times. the Alpine fault in central South Island than at any other part of the plate boundary through New Zealand [Evison, 1971; Eberhart-Phillips, 1995]. Presentation given in Christchurch in March 2015. 22, No'.) The Alpine Fault … That could be today, it could still be 100 years hence – although the probabilities are against that, given scientists have found the fault has ruptured 27 times during the past approximately 8000 years. Langridge shows an image of a stopwatch with "1717" – for the most recent quake – at the 0-second mark at the top. The movement of the two plates results and a LOT of earthquakes. "It could well be that the event is further on in time. Several of New Zealand’s deadliest and most damaging earthquakes have occurred along hidden faults that ruptured but never reached the surface. Alpine Fault quake expected NZASE article 2019 Scientists estimate a 30 percent likelihood in the next 50 years of a magnitude 8 or higher (M8+) earth-quake along 400km of the Alpine Fault, a strength about three times greater than the 7.8 Kaikoura quake in 2016. The depth is 5km, which is one of the three 'restricted depths' used by GeoNet (5, 12 and 33km) ... when depth cannot be reliably constrained. In the past 25 million years, the two sides of the South Island have shifted more than 700 kilometres relative to each other along the Alpine Fault. (File photo). There is now a 27 per cent chance of an Alpine Fault earthquake occurring in the next 50 years. He doubts Sunday's quake was on the Alpine Fault and says there are several small faults just west of it. Sie ist eine Transformstörung und bildet die Grenze zwischen der Pazifischen Platte und der Indo-Australischen Platte. You have to go through an enormous amount of information to look at what other people have discovered. The magnitude 8 and 400km rupture are popular estimates, but by no means are they estimated on the basis of any observational data.". But the fact remains that, even after dozens of studies, some with international researchers, costing millions of dollars, nothing has changed - nobody can predict when the Alpine Fault is going to rip asunder. Residents were unsuccessful in their efforts to invite the scientists to an informal meeting to share their thoughts on the Alpine Fault. Die Alpine Fault ist eine geologische Verwerfung vom Typ einer rechtshändigen Blattverschiebung, die die Südinsel Neuseelands fast der gesamten Länge nach durchquert. Shallow Fluid Movement in the Hanging Wall of the Alpine Fault ... i This set of faults, which includes the Wairau Fault, the Ho… The Pacific Plate is upthrust on the left, with the Australian Plate on the right of the scarp. With that once in every 291-year average, plus or minus 23 years, we appear to be on borrowed time. An hour and a half later, the meeting winds up. Orchiston asks for a show of hands, and it turns out about half the audience are from Franz Josef. Fault movement can also offset landscape features, and streams may develop right-angle bends where they cross faults. The result is a major earthquake along the Alpine fault. ALPINE FAULT ... dominant movement on the fault is horizontal as shown by circle symbols at the base of the figure (arrow away/towards). Have scientists discussed what clues might tip them off to an impending major Alpine Fault quake? The differential movement along a transform fault agrees with the fault motions determined by seismic analyses. Once you've seen the hump, it's difficult to unsee it. The movement of the New Zealand continental block also resulted in a marine transgression and by the Oligocene period (about 35 million years ago) most of the country was submerged. The Alpine Fault crossing Calf Paddock at Marble Hill, near Springs Junction. Our scientific understanding concerning the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. In 1948, geologist Harold Wellman realised that rocks that were once adjacent to each other had been separated by 480 kilometres as a result of movement along the Alpine Fault. It has shaped the South Island in so many ways, she says. That resulted in about 250km of movement along the Alpine Fault but in the opposite direction to the way the fault is moving today. Would that be a possible sign? Geologically, this is a high probability. 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